It’s been a little while since I published any kind of update on this situation. If you ever read any other of my blogs, such as This is My China, you know that I don’t really do “breaking news”, I don’t report on daily events. I don’t have the resources to cover the world every day, plus – I am more interested in analysis and the long-term implications. In other words, I may report on a single event such as the October Hamas attack on Israel and then address the implications then cover the initial Israeli response. I don’t cover the daily bombings and fighting because nothing has changed, the long-term implications and my analysis remain the same.
Now we are in day 3 of the 4-day cease fire as hostages are released and they try to negotiate an extension. Here is what I have to say about that…
Whose side am I on?
First, I am often accused of supporting Hamas because I am critical of Israel. The reality is, I support neither side – not Hamas and not Israel. In any conflict, it is possible for both sides to be wrong. We have to remember that this land had always been Palestine and this conflict is rooted in the taking of most of Palestine and giving it to establish the State of Israel. Then there is the continued Israeli Apartheid and the lack of a Palestinian State. This is the root of the terrorism committed against Israel. I support the Palestinian people in their quest for a homeland and Statehood, but not attacks on civilians and innocent people. That is, however, what we call blowback, the result of oppression – like sticking your hand in a fire; it’s difficult to have sympathy for someone who got burned when they stuck their hand in there. But now, here we are…
So, what about these negotiations? They won’t really get anywhere because there is nothing to negotiate. You can’t negotiate with people who just want to kill you – and both Hamas and the Israeli Government just want to kill each other. Hamas needs negotiations, Israel doesn’t.
Why does Hamas need the negotiations? They hold the weaker hand. Hamas launched the October 7 attack as a last ditch effort to sabotage the Abraham Accords and other upcoming Arab State deals with Israel. Their goal was to press Israel into retaliating in a way that would turn the Arab States against them and even join in on the fight. It worked, in part – Israel did hit them back, hard. Houthis in Yemen fired rockets at Israel in support and there’s still fear that Hezbollah will join in. However, Hamas needed Iran, Egypt, perhaps Saudi Arabia, to join the fight. They didn’t and probably won’t. Iran’s Khamenei issued a statement stating that Hamas committed the attack on their own without consulting Iran, so Iran will not join the fight. It seems that Hamas miscalculated the support that they would receive and now that are in a war that they cannot win. They have to negotiate an armistice.
So what about Israel? Israel can’t afford to let Hamas survive this. As a rule, States can’t negotiate with terrorists – that just opens them up to more terrorist attacks. If Hezbollah and others see Hamas get away with this, what will they do? Israel must make an example of Hamas that makes others think that they better not try anything. That means, Israel cannot afford to negotiate a deal – they need a decisive victory that leaves Hamas on the ash heap of history. Even a settlement that disbands Hamas leaves Israel open to attack – Hamas is just the name of an organization, breaking up the organization doesn’t remove the ideology. Even the very idea of a Palestinian State can’t be considered by Israel now, they want, and need, the Palestinian people removed from the land.
So, how does Hamas negotiate peace with Israel? They can’t. It’s going to take outside pressure through Qatar, perhaps Jordan, Egypt to negotiate on behalf of Hamas. Hamas will not get what they wanted out of this.
Israel has the support of the United States. Without that, this would be an entirely different game for Israel, but the fact remains that, as long as Israel has the support of the USA, they can pretty much do what they want and the US cannot be seen as negotiating with a terrorist group, especially one that took American hostages.
That’s the current situation and analysis. The only thing we can do now is see what comes out of the talks that are going on today. They may agree to extend the cease-fire but there will not an actual truce, a peace deal, as long as Hamas exists and Israel does not have security guarantees; the securities guarantees that they want include Israel having control over all Palestinian territory.
Again, this is why I don’t concern myself with daily events, unless the event is a game-changer.
